US Market Wrap - Financial Juice
The economic danger of restrictions to control the new omicron form exceeded optimism about vaccine efficacy in the United States, causing equities to fall and bonds to rise.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both fell, capping a three-day rise, as consumer discretionary and real estate companies led the market lower. After a weak sale of 30-year bonds, treasuries pared their rise. Meanwhile, the CBOE Volatility Index crept closer to 22.
The cost of containing the omicron strain is being calculated, as there is growing concern that it would stymie the economic recovery. According to Bloomberg Economics, new work-from-home guidance in the United Kingdom might cost the country's economy £2 billion ($2.6 billion) per month. According to one study, the omicron variation is 4.2 times more transmissible than the delta variant in its early phases.
The global share rise could be derailed further by US consumer inflation data on Friday and a Federal Reserve meeting next week, which could provide indications on the pace of tapering and interest rate increases.
The dollar strengthened on Thursday as a report showed that applications for state unemployment benefits in the United States had dropped to their lowest level since 1969. However, economists have raised concerns about the seasonal adjustments required to arrive at that figure. Initial claims increased on an unadjusted basis.
Stocks in Europe reversed early gains to trade marginally lower. Among the individual swings, electricite de France sa dropped as the government considers a cap on regulated power rates to help reduce growing electricity prices. Meanwhile, Unicredit spa increased after announcing that it will return at least 16 billion euros ($18.1 billion) to shareholders by 2024.
In Asia, China Evergrande Group and Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. officially defaulted on their dollar debt, while the People's Bank of China boosted its foreign currency reserve requirement ratio for the second time this year, following the yuan's highest level since 2018.
SPY Price Action
Open: 468.15
High: 469.63
Low: 466.14
Close: 466.35
Volume: 57,072,142
SPY - Dec. 10 - Analysis
Options Data
Volume totals reflect options traded during the current session (12/9)
Put Volume Total: 1,651,352 (13.26% decrease from yesterday)
Call Volume Total: 1,258,868 (18.284% decrease from yesterday)
Put/Call Volume Ratio: 1.31 (5.65% increase from yesterday)
Put Open Interest Total: 12,895,480 (0.19% increase from yesterday)
Call Open Interest Total: 6,658,400 (2.93% decrease from yesterday)
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio: 1.94 (3.19% increase from yesterday)
12/10
IV: 15.63
Dvol: 0.98
461.72 - 470.90
Key: 468
Crossover: 467
Technical Analysis - 65 min
Commentary:
Bulls held 466 into close. Can the bears clear 466 tomorrow or will we bounce?
Established support at bottom of gap at 466. If bulls lose 466 we could see 463 - 459 in a hurry as highlighted in the gap fill chart.
We could see a 9 SMMA test (on 1 day chart). The 9 SMMA acted as strong resistance during downtrend. The 9 SMMA s currently at 462.80
The 50 SMMA acted as strong resistance during 11/29 downtrend.
50 SMMA is at 463.74
Bears still have chance to fill gap.
CPI data comes out Friday, 8:30 AM EST.
We may trade flat the rest of the week with FOMC next week. 470 may act as a pin.
Levels:
Micro support area : 466.09 - 467.13
Gap fill: 463.68 - 460.59 - 459.15 (use pt as short term bearish targets)
Resistance - 473.95
Micro Resistance: 370.72
Bullish Targets: 477.43 - 481.50 - 484.54
Bearish Targets: 456.45 pivot - 450.92 - 447.69 - 443.43
RSI - 65 min.
Bears want to 33.91
Bulls want to see 77.29 - 91.49
RSI favors bears
MACD - 65 min.
Bearish cross
Bears looking to extend
Bulls want 3.92+
Bears want -1.13
Gap Analysis - 65 min
Bulls filled gap from 11/30
Bulls filled gap from 11/26
Established support at bottom of gap at 466. If bulls lose 466 we could see 463 - 459 in a hurry.
Downtrend Breakout Analysis - 65 min
If this downtrend breakout holds true - look for 475.33 as price target in the days to come
SPY - Dec. 31, 2021 - The Month Ahead
Support: 448.11
Micro Pivot: 457.57
Resistance: 470.90
Micro Resistance: 462.36
Bullish Targets: 481.60 - 488.27 - 496.41 - 503.71
Bearish Targets: 443.3.62 - 437.28 - 428.32 - 419.24
Currently above Micro Resistance
Need to Know Market Risk - Financial Juice
US State Department Spokesman Price: We are discussing options with our close allies, including with the Israelis. We are discussing how we can ensure that Iran is never going to acquire nuclear weapons.
The BoC and finance ministry are to leave inflation target at 2% in framework renewal to be announced soon.
WH Press Sec. Psaki: If needed, Biden will veto bill banning vaccine mandates.
Senate has votes to advance fast-track plan to raise debt limit
Iraq's Oil Minister Jabbar: We are in talks with US company to replace Exxon.
EU countries are expected to agree to 9-month COVID travel pass - Sources.
NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.