US Market Wrap - Financial Juice
In a turbulent session ahead of Friday's options expiry, technology stocks powered the equity market to a record.
The S&P 500 reached its 66th all-time high, putting the benchmark index on track to set the second-highest number of annual records in history, trailing only 1995. The tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 outperformed after global chipmaker Nvidia raised its outlook, while Apple surged after it was reported the corporation is accelerating the development of its electric automobile. Macy's Inc. and Kohl's Corp. led retail advances after indicating that consumer demand remains strong.
According to Mark Haefele, Chief Investment Officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, the S&P 500 might reach 5,200 in the next six months in an environment of less monetary stimulus and outperformance by cyclical companies. That would imply an 11% gain from Wednesday's close.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. economists said they now expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in September, becoming the latest on Wall Street to abandon a forecast for the Fed to remain on hold until 2022. Analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicted a Fed rate hike in July last month. Morgan Stanley analysts believe officials will continue to hold steady on interest rates for the rest of the year.
Nov. 19 - US Market Wrap - Financial Juice
Stocks declined as a result of aggressive comments from Federal Reserve officials and growing anxiety that a new wave of the pandemic in Europe could prompt more lockdowns.
Companies that are economically sensitive, such as oil, banking, and industrial stocks, have fallen, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 has outperformed major benchmarks.
The treasury curve flattened after two members of the Federal Reserve's board of directors suggested that, in light of strong economic growth and increasing inflation, the Fed may need to consider speeding up the reduction of its bond-buying program. The dollar increased.
While stock prices are approaching all-time highs, bolstered by strong earnings, a viral comeback may halt the economic recovery at a time when inflation is at an all-time high.
Austria was the first country in Western Europe to adopt sweeping restrictions. Non-essential businesses were also closed in areas of Germany, and the Netherlands had previously ordered shops and bars to close early.
Biden's centrepiece plan to extend the social safety net, confront climate change, and reform tax policies passed the House of Representatives on Friday morning, with House Rep. Speaker Pelosi uniting divided Democrats to send the bill to the Senate, where its fate remains uncertain.
SPY - Recap - Nov. 19
SPY - Nov. 22 - Analysis
Volume totals reflect options traded during the current session (11/19)
Put Volume Total: 2,062,262
Call Volume Total: 1,504,125
Put/Call Volume Ratio: 1.37
Put Open Interest Total: 14,345,570
Call Open Interest Total: 7,265,739
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio: 1.97
465.07 - 473.11
Technical Analysis - 30 min.
Support : 467.76
Pivot: 468.86 (Current Support)
Resistance - 471 - 470.49
Bullish Targets: 472.35 - 474.68
Bearish Targets: 466.67 - 464.21 - 463
Consolidating around 20 SMMA
Near bottom of uptrend support
Bulls not being able to find support above 471 is concerning
RSI - 65 min.
Essentially consolidating since Nov. 17
Look for a 60.60 break for ATH
Look for 45.35 break for more downside
MACD - 65 min.
Slight advantage to bears
DMI - 1 day
Uptrend slightly weakened from Nov. 5
Bulls like to see +Di (blue) to 36.2367 - 41.9097
Bears like to see -DI (orange) to 21.649+
Advantage to bulls until -DI (orange) crosses 21.649
SPY - Jan. 21, 2022 - 65 min.
Bullish Target: 481.57 - 490.73 - 496.85 - 503.51
Bearish Targets: 453.85 - 448.56 - 437.23 - 429.83
About 6 touches since Nov. 5 @ 470.59 ish (R1)
At median of parallel channel
If bulls can establish support above resistance I believe we can see 481.57 - 490.73 before Jan. 21 exp.
I will begin to worry about a downturn if we cross 462.53.
If 462.53 breaks I’m looking for a bottom at 453.85 - 448.56
Need to Know Market Risk - Financial Juice
WH Press Sec. Psaki: OPEC should meet current demand and secure enough supply.
Fed's Clarida: It may be acceptable to explore speeding taper at the December meeting. (DXY strengthened, S&P 500 and Gold weakened)
Fed's Waller: On employment increases and inflation, I favour a faster taper.
Fed's Waller: The increase in inflation expectations is extremely concerning.