US Market Wrap - Financial Juice
In-line inflation data fueled betting that the Federal Reserve would not have to hasten plans to tighten monetary policy, sending US markets to record highs today.
The S&P 500 climbed 1% and the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.1% as the headline rate rose to 6.8%, the highest since 1982, as forecast. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year treasury dipped to 1.49% as traders cut bets on the Fed's tightening pace.
After Fed's Powell stated the central bank might explore withdrawing stimulus at a faster pace, investors were looking forward to the inflation data and a meeting of the Federal Reserve next week for signals on the pace of tapering and interest rate increases.
The report comes as markets grapple with the threat of the Omicron virus. As virus cases and hospital admissions rise, the US appears to be on the verge of a holiday crisis. Similarly, London firms have told tens of thousands of workers to work from home.
Nonetheless, consumer morale in the US has been rising, with one indicator indicating an improvement in confidence from a decade-low in November. Gold rose while the dollar fell.
Separately, the chairman of China Evergrande Group, Hui Ka Yan, was forced to sell pledged shares in the company, according to disclosures made a day after the developer was officially declared a defaulter for the first time.
$SPY Price Action
Open: 469.23
High: 470.89
Low: 466.52
Close: 470.74
Volume: 68,978,383
$SPY - Dec. 13 - Analysis
Options Data
Volume totals reflect options traded during the current session (12/10)
Put Volume Total: 2,530,548 (53.24% increase from yesterday)
Call Volume Total: 1,787,021 (41.95% increase from yesterday)
Put/Call Volume Ratio: 1.42 (8.40% increase from yesterday)
Put Open Interest Total: 13,116,896 (1.72% increase from yesterday)
Call Open Interest Total: 6,812,248 (2.31% increase from yesterday)
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio:1.93 (0.52% decrease from yesterday)
$SPY - Dec. 13 - Analysis
Options Data
Volume totals reflect options traded during the current session (12/10)
Put Volume Total: 2,530,548 (53.24% increase from yesterday)
Call Volume Total: 1,787,021 (41.95% increase from yesterday)
Put/Call Volume Ratio: 1.42 (8.40% increase from yesterday)
Put Open Interest Total: 13,116,896 (1.72% increase from yesterday)
Call Open Interest Total: 6,812,248 (2.31% increase from yesterday)
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio:1.93 (0.52% decrease from yesterday)
Technical Analysis - 65 min
Commentary:
Bounced from 466
Still maintain that we see santa rally if bulls keep it above 462
If Bulls lose 466 we could see 463-460 quickly
The 1-Day RSI has crossed. It’s imperative that Bulls hold 463.** upgap.
Bulls looking to establish support at 470.10 (top of gap fill and pivot)
Bulls need to protect up gap (currently bearish price targets next week. I believe if we can protect the gap then we will see 480 EOY.
If pivot holds on monday look for resistance at 473.
If the downtrend breakout from earlier last week holds true, look for 475.
FOMC (12/15) is followed by a very large 12/17 OPEX. These events combined may setup a large directional move into year end.
Levels:
Micro support area : 466.09 - 467.13
Resistance - 473.95
Pivot: 470.10
Bullish Targets: 477.43 - 481.50 - 484.54
Bearish Targets: 463.68 - 460.59 - 456.44 (gap fill)
RSI - 65 min.
Bears want to 33.91
Bulls want to see 77.29 - 91.49
RSI favors bulls
MACD - 65 min.
Bullish cross
Near 0 line
Bulls looking to extend
Bulls want 3.92+
Bears want -1.13
Gap Analysis - 65 min
Bulls filled gap from 11/30
Bulls filled gap from 11/26
Bulls looking to establish support at 470.10 (top of gap fill)
Established support at bottom of gap at 466. If bulls lose 466 we could see 463 - 459 in a hurry.
Downtrend Breakout Analysis - 65 min
If this downtrend breakout holds true - look for 475.33 as price target in the days to come
This pattern is still in play
$SPY - Dec. 31, 2021 - The Month Ahead
Support: 448.11
Micro Pivot: 457.57
Resistance: 470.90
Micro Resistance: 462.36
Bullish Targets: 481.60 - 488.27 - 496.41 - 503.71
Bearish Targets: 443.3.62 - 437.28 - 428.32 - 419.24
Currently above Micro Resistance
RSI - 1 Day
Bulls need 58.76 - 62 for ATH
Bears need 33.05 (sept. low on RSI) - 28.54 - 19.71
RSI is still bullish
At resistance line
MACD - 1 Day
Bullish cross
Bulls need to expand early next week for ATH
Need to Know Market Risk - Financial Juice
Biden: I have signed the debt-limit fast track bill.
Biden stops federal aid for overseas coal, oil, and gas projects.
G-7 finance ministers plan to discuss inflation on Monday.
The United Kingdom, Norway, and the European Union signed a trilateral agreement on fishing catch limits for 2022 today - UK Government Statement.
US CPI MoM Actual 0.8% (Forecast 0.7%, Previous 0.9%) - DXY weakened, S&P 500 strengthened, Gold strengthened.
Thanks For Reading!
UpRise Traders Analyst Team
(NOT INVESTMENT ADVISE)
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