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Sunday Stock Market Review For The Week Ahead Starting 12/13/21

US Market Wrap - Financial Juice

  • In-line inflation data fueled betting that the Federal Reserve would not have to hasten plans to tighten monetary policy, sending US markets to record highs today.

  • The S&P 500 climbed 1% and the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.1% as the headline rate rose to 6.8%, the highest since 1982, as forecast. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year treasury dipped to 1.49% as traders cut bets on the Fed's tightening pace.

  • After Fed's Powell stated the central bank might explore withdrawing stimulus at a faster pace, investors were looking forward to the inflation data and a meeting of the Federal Reserve next week for signals on the pace of tapering and interest rate increases.

  • The report comes as markets grapple with the threat of the Omicron virus. As virus cases and hospital admissions rise, the US appears to be on the verge of a holiday crisis. Similarly, London firms have told tens of thousands of workers to work from home.

  • Nonetheless, consumer morale in the US has been rising, with one indicator indicating an improvement in confidence from a decade-low in November. Gold rose while the dollar fell.

  • Separately, the chairman of China Evergrande Group, Hui Ka Yan, was forced to sell pledged shares in the company, according to disclosures made a day after the developer was officially declared a defaulter for the first time.

$SPY Price Action

  • Open: 469.23

  • High: 470.89

  • Low: 466.52

  • Close: 470.74

  • Volume: 68,978,383

$SPY - Dec. 13 - Analysis

Options Data

Volume totals reflect options traded during the current session (12/10)

  • Put Volume Total: 2,530,548 (53.24% increase from yesterday)

  • Call Volume Total: 1,787,021 (41.95% increase from yesterday)

  • Put/Call Volume Ratio: 1.42 (8.40% increase from yesterday)

  • Put Open Interest Total: 13,116,896 (1.72% increase from yesterday)

  • Call Open Interest Total: 6,812,248 (2.31% increase from yesterday)

  • Put/Call Open Interest Ratio:1.93 (0.52% decrease from yesterday)

$SPY - Dec. 13 - Analysis

Options Data

Volume totals reflect options traded during the current session (12/10)

  • Put Volume Total: 2,530,548 (53.24% increase from yesterday)

  • Call Volume Total: 1,787,021 (41.95% increase from yesterday)

  • Put/Call Volume Ratio: 1.42 (8.40% increase from yesterday)

  • Put Open Interest Total: 13,116,896 (1.72% increase from yesterday)

  • Call Open Interest Total: 6,812,248 (2.31% increase from yesterday)

  • Put/Call Open Interest Ratio:1.93 (0.52% decrease from yesterday)

Technical Analysis - 65 min

Commentary:

  • Bounced from 466

  • Still maintain that we see santa rally if bulls keep it above 462

  • If Bulls lose 466 we could see 463-460 quickly

  • The 1-Day RSI has crossed. It’s imperative that Bulls hold 463.** upgap.

  • Bulls looking to establish support at 470.10 (top of gap fill and pivot)

  • Bulls need to protect up gap (currently bearish price targets next week. I believe if we can protect the gap then we will see 480 EOY.

  • If pivot holds on monday look for resistance at 473.

  • If the downtrend breakout from earlier last week holds true, look for 475.

  • FOMC (12/15) is followed by a very large 12/17 OPEX. These events combined may setup a large directional move into year end.

Levels:

  • Micro support area : 466.09 - 467.13

  • Resistance - 473.95

  • Pivot: 470.10

  • Bullish Targets: 477.43 - 481.50 - 484.54

  • Bearish Targets: 463.68 - 460.59 - 456.44 (gap fill)

RSI - 65 min.

  • Bears want to 33.91

  • Bulls want to see 77.29 - 91.49

  • RSI favors bulls

MACD - 65 min.

  • Bullish cross

  • Near 0 line

  • Bulls looking to extend

  • Bulls want 3.92+

  • Bears want -1.13

Gap Analysis - 65 min

  • Bulls filled gap from 11/30

  • Bulls filled gap from 11/26

  • Bulls looking to establish support at 470.10 (top of gap fill)

  • Established support at bottom of gap at 466. If bulls lose 466 we could see 463 - 459 in a hurry.

Downtrend Breakout Analysis - 65 min

  • If this downtrend breakout holds true - look for 475.33 as price target in the days to come

  • This pattern is still in play

$SPY - Dec. 31, 2021 - The Month Ahead

  • Support: 448.11

  • Micro Pivot: 457.57

  • Resistance: 470.90

  • Micro Resistance: 462.36

  • Bullish Targets: 481.60 - 488.27 - 496.41 - 503.71

  • Bearish Targets: 443.3.62 - 437.28 - 428.32 - 419.24

  • Currently above Micro Resistance

RSI - 1 Day

  • Bulls need 58.76 - 62 for ATH

  • Bears need 33.05 (sept. low on RSI) - 28.54 - 19.71

  • RSI is still bullish

  • At resistance line

MACD - 1 Day

  • Bullish cross

  • Bulls need to expand early next week for ATH

Need to Know Market Risk - Financial Juice

  • Biden: I have signed the debt-limit fast track bill.

  • Biden stops federal aid for overseas coal, oil, and gas projects.

  • G-7 finance ministers plan to discuss inflation on Monday.

  • The United Kingdom, Norway, and the European Union signed a trilateral agreement on fishing catch limits for 2022 today - UK Government Statement.

  • US CPI MoM Actual 0.8% (Forecast 0.7%, Previous 0.9%) - DXY weakened, S&P 500 strengthened, Gold strengthened.

Thanks For Reading!

UpRise Traders Analyst Team

(NOT INVESTMENT ADVISE)

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